Problem 14. Run the exponential smoothing procedure of the time series with the parameter adjustment 0.5 (as the initial value of the exponential average to take the arithmetic mean of the first three levels). Represented graphically, and the smoothed series.

Problem 23. Assuming for the temporary presence of a number of factors to calculate the exponential trend and compile the equation. To test the hypothesis of normal distribution of residuals series.

with detailed calculations